A report by socioeconomic research firm, SBM Intelligence, has revealed that 64.0% of respondents in Lagos believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the upcoming governorship election in Lagos.
According to the report, the majority of all age groups and employment categories chose the incumbent governor as their preferred candidate for the election.
SBM disclosed this in the report titled
“NigeriaDecides2023: Hope & Caution”
which it produced in partnership with Enough is Enough (EiE) Nigeria.
The report further noted that the main opposition party, the PDP, is projected to win 15 states, APC 10 states, LP, 1 state, and NNPP 1 state for the elections expected to hold on the 11th of March.
They added that in 11 states. more than 50% of the respondents showed an interest in responding to the governorship elections. They said:
“In the 29 states that we asked governorship questions, we had answers in all, but at differing rates. It is only in 11 states, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Borno, Kano, Kebbi, Lagos, Rivers, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, that we had more than 50% of the respondents showing an interest in responding to the governorship elections.
“While in Taraba nearly every respondent answered, in Nasarawa, of 216 people polled, only three could be bothered.”
The report revealed that respondents believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the governorship election. Part of the report said:
“Of our 314 respondents in Lagos, only 97 refused to answer questions about the governorship election. The big issues in Lagos are unemployment and insecurity.
“Most (64.0%) respondents believe that Babajide Sanwo-Olu will win the governorship election, with the majority of all age groups and employment categories also choosing him. 30.9% of respondents had no answer to the question of who will win, while the remaining candidates received a combined total of 5.1% of the vote.
“Had the result of the presidential election went to the APC in this state, this would have been an easy call to make.”
They added that Labour Party has enough momentum within the state to turn into a winning electoral programme. However, they think that displacing the incumbent in a state where the political structures are willing to deploy violence, as shown during the presidential elections, may just be a step too far. Also, motivated by its first major electoral loss in the state’s post-democratic history, the APC will try everything possible to retain Lagos as its base.
A major concern:
They warned of a disconnect from the lower levels of governance is very unhealthy for democracy in Nigeria. The undue focus on the presidency cannot possibly lead to a good outcome for the country as Nigeria’s federal system of government requires the concurrent functioning of the three tiers of government (local, state, and federal) to facilitate substantive change.
“ Regrettably, it has been noted that the Nigerian electorate tends to focus primarily on the presidential elections, neglecting the significance of elections for the governorship, legislative, and local government.”